Research on World Agricultural Economy

The Effect of Protectionism and Competition on South Africa’s Avocados: What Realistic Export Market Opportunities Can Be Explored?

Moses H. Lubinga

Markets and Economic Research Centre, National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria 0001, South Africa; Department of Agricultural Management, School of Natural Resource Science & Management, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha 6031, South Africa

Ezra Steenkamp

Directorate of International Trade Promotions Services, Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

Samkelisiwe Ngwenya

Directorate of International Trade Promotions Services, Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

Corne’ Dempers

Markets and Economic Research Centre, National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

Bernard Manganyi

Markets and Economic Research Centre, National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

Thulani Ningi

Markets and Economic Research Centre, National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

Thabile Nkunjana

Markets and Economic Research Centre, National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

Funzani Sundani

Markets and Economic Research Centre, National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i2.2554

Received: 30 July 2025 | Revised: 10 September 2025 | Accepted: 19 September 2025 | Published Online: 27 May 2026

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Abstract

South Africa’s avocado industry largely relies on the European Union (EU) as its main export market. However, this presents a significant level of competition from other suppliers in the EU as well as protectionism, especially in terms of non-tariff barriers. We use a gravity flow framework to evaluate the effect of protectionism and competition as measured by the mean trade-weighted ad valorem equivalents on avocados originating from South Africa. Furthermore, the study finds feasible new export markets for South African avocados using the decision support model. The findings highlight that a unit increase in protectionism and competition towards avocados in South Africa’s key export markets is associated with a 36.3% decline in revenue as well as a 31% decrease in the quantity exported. Findings based on the decision support model suggest that the United States, Japan, and China offer realistic potential export opportunities to be explored by the avocado industry. It is recommended that South Africa, in partnership with authorities in the identified markets with realistic export opportunities, develop implementable market access protocols for the avocado industry, drawing much attention to sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) market access concerns. There is also an urgent need for the Department of Agriculture (DoA), the Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition (DTIC), and industry stakeholders, among other relevant government departments, to explore the existing value chain round tables to review prioritized commodities to the identified markets.

Keywords: Decision Support Model (DSM); Gravity Model; International Trade; Ad Valorem Equivalents (AVEs)

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