The Relationship Between Agricultural Carbon Dioxide Emission and Agriculture Subsectors Production: Static Panel Data Approach
Ayşe Esra Peker
Department of Economics, Fırat University, Elazığ 23119, Türkiye
Nuran Akdağ
Department of International Trade and Finance, İstanbul Gelişim University, İstanbul 34310, Türkiye
Dilek Veysİkaranİ
Department of International Trade and Business, Laboratory, Munzur University, Tunceli 62000, Türkiy
Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Presidency of Tax Inspection Board, Ankara 06500, Türkiye
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Selçuk University, Konya 42130, Türkiye
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i2.2690
Received: 1 September 2025 | Revised: 20 November 2025 | Accepted: 25 November 2025 | Published Online: 28 May 2026
Copyright © 2026 Ayşe Esra Peker, Nuran Akdağ, Dilek Veysİkaranİ, Mustafa Göktuğ Kaya, Perihan Hazel Kaya. Published by Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte. Ltd.
This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.
Abstract
Human activities contribute to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which have serious environmental, economic, and social effects of climate change. This has sparked efforts to find large-scale solutions to eliminate the causes of climate change. While these solutions mainly involve reducing carbon emissions through global agreements, individual nations have also taken steps to cut emissions by changing production methods, such as irrigation and fertilisation, to ensure the efficient and effective use of resources and the proper storage and transportation of food. As a result, the agricultural sector is both a source and a victim of this process. The sector’s environmental impact varies due to differing production techniques and energy needs across various sub-sectors like vegetable, grain, and fruit production. Increases in carbon dioxide emissions in this sector are connected not only to production activities but also to demographic and social factors, such as the rural population proportion. This study aims to explore the effect of vegetable, grain, and fruit production, as well as the rural population ratio, on carbon dioxide emissions. To achieve this, a static panel data analysis was conducted across 21 European countries from 1970 to 2023. According to the research findings, vegetable production increases carbon emissions from agriculture. However, it was found to have a significant, albeit borderline, impact on fruit production and to reduce carbon emissions. These results demonstrate that agriculture's contribution to carbon dioxide emissions varies by sub-sector and provide valuable information for developing sustainable agricultural policies.
Keywords: Climate Change; Agriculture; Carbon Emissions; Europe; Panel Data Analysis; Economic Growth
References
[1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: London, UK.
[2] Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2020. The State of Food and Agriculture 2020: Overcoming Water Challenges in Agriculture. FAO: Rome, Italy.
[3] Burney, J.A., Davis, S.J., Lobell, D.B., et al., 2010. Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 107(26), 12052–12057. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0914216107
[4] West, T.O., Marland, G., King, A.W., et al., 2010. Carbon management response curves: estimates of temporal soil carbon dynamics. Environmental Management. 33, 507–518. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-003-9108-3
[5] Ellis, F., 2000. Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries. Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK.
[6] Tilman, D., Cassman, K.G., Matson, P.A., et al., 2002. Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature. 418(6898), 671–677. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01014
[7] Lal, R., 2004. Carbon emission from farm operations. Environment International. 30(8), 981–990. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2004.03.005
[8] Smith, P., Martino, D., Cai, Z., et al., 2008. Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 363(1492), 789–813. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.2184
[9] Pant, K.P., 2009. Effects of agriculture on climate change: a cross country study of factors affecting carbon emissions. Journal of Agriculture and Environment. 10, 84–102. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/aej.v10i0.2134
[10] Liu, X., Zhang, S., Bae, J., et al., 2017. The impact of renewable energy and agriculture on carbon dioxide emissions: investigating the environmental Kuznets curve in four selected ASEAN countries. Journal of Cleaner Production. 164, 1239–1247. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.086
[11] Majewski, S., Mentel, G., Dylewski, M., et al., 2022. Renewable energy, agriculture and CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from the middle-income countries. Frontiers in Energy Research. 10, 921166. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2022.921166
[12] Vleeshouwers, L.M., Verhagen, A., 2002. Carbon emission and sequestration by agricultural land use: a model study for Europe. Global Change Biology. 8(6), 519–530. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00485.x
[13] Porter, S.D., Reay, D.S., Bomberg, E., et al., 2018. Avoidable food losses and associated production-phase greenhouse gas emissions arising from application of cosmetic standards to fresh fruit and vegetables in Europe and the UK. Journal of Cleaner Production. 201, 869–878. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.08.079
[14] Bayraç, H.N., Doğan, E., 2016. Impact of climate change on agricultural sector in Turkey. Eskişehir Osmangazi University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences. 11(1), 23–48. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Emrah-Dogan2/publication/305307241_Turkiye'de_Iklim_Degisikliginin_Tarim_Sektoru_Uzerine_Etkileri/links/57876f7e08ae78057de18fb9/Tuerkiyede-Iklim-Degisikliginin-Tarim-Sektoerue-Uezerine-Etkileri.pdf (cited 30 August 2025). (in Turkish)
[15] Hayaloğlu, P., 2019. The effects of climate change on the agricultural sector and economic growth. Gümüşhane University Journal of Social Sciences. 9(25), 51–62.
[16] Pakdemirli, B., 2020. Impacts of CO2 emissions on agriculture: empirical evidence from Turkey. Derim. 37(1), 33–43. DOI: https://doi.org/10.16882/derim.2020.700482
[17] Doğan, N., 2019. The impact of agriculture on CO2 emissions in China. Panoeconomicus. 66(2), 257–271. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN160504030D
[18] Rafiq, S., Salim, R., Apergis, N., 2016. Agriculture: trade openness and emissions: an empirical analysis and policy options. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 60, 348–365. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12131
[19] Zafeiriou, E., Azam, M., 2017. CO2 emissions and economic performance in EU agriculture: some evidence from Mediterranean countries. Ecological Indicators. 81, 104–114. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.05.039
[20] Chandio, A.A., Jiang, Y., Rehman, A., et al., 2020. Short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture: an empirical evidence from China. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2019-0026
[21] Haller, A., 2022. Influence of agricultural chains on the carbon footprint in the context of European Green Pact and crises. Agriculture. 12(6), 751. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12060751
[22] Rokicki, T., Koszela, G., Ochnio, L., et al., 2020. Greenhouse gas emissions by agriculture in EU countries. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska. 22, 809–824. Available from: https://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-2c88cfad-51a0-4d4b-bd7f-d68bc013a3ca/c/57_rokicki_greenhouse_ROS_2020.pdf
[23] Okumuş, İ., 2019. The relationship between renewable energy consumption, agriculture, and CO2 emissions in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Innovation. 6(1), 21–34. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.659092 (in Turkish)
[24] Dallı, T., Kütükçü, E., 2023. Relationship between agriculture, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, foreign direct investment, and CO2 emissions in Turkey: ARDL analysis. Osmaniye Korkut Ata University Journal of the Institute of Science. 6(3), 2154–2170. DOI: https://doi.org/10.47495/okufbed.1173480 (in Turkish)
[25] Ajam, N., Moghaddasi, R., Mohammadinejad, A., et al., 2023. Impact of globalization on CO2 emission in the agricultural sector: case study of selected developed countries. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 195(10), 1138. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11753-1
[26] Gafsi, N., Bakari, S., 2024. Impacts of agricultural CO2 emissions, agricultural exports and financial development on economic growth: insights from East Asia and Pacific countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 14(6), 136–153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16960
[27] Tagwi, A., 2022. The impacts of climate change, carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) and renewable energy consumption on agricultural economic growth in South Africa: ARDL approach. Sustainability. 14(24), 16468. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416468
[28] Zang, D., Hu, Z., Yang, Y., 2022. Research on the relationship between agricultural carbon emission intensity, agricultural economic development and agricultural trade in China. Sustainability. 14(18), 11694. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811694
[29] Yang, S.-j., Li, Y.-b., Yan, S.-g., 2018. An empirical analysis of the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emission and economic growth in Jilin Province. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering. 392(6), 062101. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/392/6/062101
[30] Han, H., Zhong, Z., Guo, Y., 2018. Coupling and decoupling effects of agricultural carbon emissions in China and their driving factors. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 25, 25280–25293. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-2589-7
[31] Ben Jebli, M., Ben Youssef, S., 2019. Combustible renewables and waste consumption, agriculture, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Brazil. Carbon Management. 10(3), 309–321. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2019.1605482
[32] Li, Z., Zheng, X., 2011. Study on relationship between Sichuan agricultural carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural economic growth. Energy Procedia. 5, 1073–1077. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2011.03.189
[33] Luo, Y., Long, X., Wu, C., et al., 2017. Decoupling CO2 emissions from economic growth in agricultural sector across 30 Chinese provinces from 1997 to 2014. Journal of Cleaner Production. 159, 220–228. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.05.076
[34] Zhang, L., Pang, J., Chen, X., et al., 2019. Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the agricultural sector of China’s main grain-producing areas. Science of the Total Environment. 665, 1017–1025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.162
[35] Hajimirzajan, A., Vahdat, M., Sadegheih, A., 2021. An integrated strategic framework for large-scale crop planning: sustainable climate-smart crop planning and agri-food supply chain management. Sustainable Production and Consumption. 26, 709–732.
[36] Coderoni, S., Esposti, R., 2014. Is there a long-term relationship between agricultural GHG emissions and productivity growth? A dynamic panel data approach. Environmental and Resource Economics. 58(2), 273–302.
[37] Shadkam, E., Irannezhad, E., 2025. A comprehensive review of simulation optimization methods in agricultural supply chains and transition towards an agent-based intelligent digital framework for agriculture 4.0. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence. 143, 109930. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2024.109930
[38] Mirmozaffari, M., Shadkam, E., Khalili, S.M., et al., 2021. A novel artificial intelligent approach: Comparison of machine learning tools and algorithms based on optimization DEA Malmquist productivity index for eco-efficiency evaluation. International Journal of Energy Sector Management. 15(3), 523–550.
[39] Baltagi, B.H., 2005. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 3rd ed. John Wiley & Sons: Chichester, UK.
[40] Gujarati, D.N., Porter, D.C., 2009. Basic Econometrics. McGraw-Hill: New York, NY, USA.
[41] Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F., 2013. Panel Data Econometrics. Beta Publications: Istanbul, Turkey.
[42] Greene, W.H., 2000. Econometric Analysis, 4th ed. Prentice Hall: Englewood Cliffs, NJ, USA. pp. 201–215.
[43] Hausman, J.A., 1978. Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica. 46(6), 1251–1277. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827
[44] Driscoll, J.C., Kraay, A.C., 1998. Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics. 80(4), 549–560.
[45] Baltagi, B.H., 2008. Forecasting with panel data. Journal of Forecasting. 27(2), 153–173.
[46] Hsiao, C., 2022. Analysis of Panel Data, 4th ed. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
[47] Wooldridge, J.M., 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, 2nd ed. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, USA.
[48] Thorpe, M., Leitao, N.C., 2012. Marginal Intra-Industry Trade and Adjustment Costs: The Australian Experience. Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy. 31(1), 123–131.
[49] Pesaran, M.H., 2015. Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics. Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK.
[50] O’Brien, R.M., 2007. A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors. Quality and Quantity. 41(5), 673–690.
[51] Hair, J.F., Black, W.C., Babin, B.J., 2010. Multivariate Data Analysis, 7th ed. Pearson: New York, NY, USA.
[52] Kutner, M.H., Nachtsheim, C.J., Neter, J., 2005. Applied Linear Statistical Models, 5th ed. McGraw-Hill/Irwin: New York, NY, USA.
[53] Eren, Ö., Baran, M.F., Gökdoğan, O., 2019. Determination of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the production of different fruits in Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin. 28(1), 464–472.
[54] Baran, M.F., 2022. Determination of energy use efficiency and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of persimmon (Diospyros kaki L.) production in Turkey (A case study in Adıyaman province). Erwerbs-Obstbau. 64, 499–505. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10341-022-00639-0
[55] Kai, T., Adhikari, D., 2021. Effect of organic and chemical fertilizer application on apple nutrient content and orchard soil condition. Agriculture. 11(4), 340. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11040340
[56] Cech, R., Leisch, F., Zaller, J.G., 2022. Pesticide use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in sugar beet, apples, and viticulture in Austria from 2000 to 2019. Agriculture. 12(6), 879. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12060879
[57] Subedi, S., Dent, B., Adhikari, R., 2024. The carbon footprint of fruits: A systematic review from a life cycle perspective. Sustainable Production and Consumption. 52, 12–28. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2024.10.014
[58] Zhang, J., Wang, Y., Li, Y., et al., 2025. Carbon emissions peak of China's apple cultivation achieved in 2014: a comprehensive analysis and implications. Scientific Reports. 15, 12141. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88885-6
[59] Garnett, T., 2013. Food sustainability: problems, perspectives and solutions. Proceedings of the Nutrition Society. 72(1), 29–39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0029665112002947
[60] Smith, P., Calvin, K., Nkem, J., et al., 2020. Which practices co-deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification? Global Change Biology. 26(3), 1532–1575. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14878
[61] Rajatiya, J., Varu, D.K., Gohil, P., 2018. Climate change: impact, mitigation and adaptation in fruit crops. International Journal of Pure and Applied Biosciences. 6(1), 1161–1169.
[62] Liu, Q., Zhan, M., Chekem, F.O., et al., 2017. A hybrid fruit fly algorithm for solving flexible job-shop scheduling to reduce manufacturing carbon footprint. Journal of Cleaner Production. 168, 668–678. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.09.037
[63] Wróbel-Jędrzejewska, M., Przybysz, Ł., 2024. Carbon footprint calculating for fruit processing and storage activities. Journal of Cleaner Production. 479, 144062. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.144062
[64] Sharma, S., Rana, V.S., Prasad, H., 2021. Appraisal of carbon capture, storage, and utilization through fruit crops. Frontiers in Environmental Science. 9, 700768. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.700768