Research on World Agricultural Economy

Modeling the Impact of Climate Risks on Food Security in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Gulnur Baidauletova

Department of Economics, Graduate School of Management and Business, M. Auezov South Kazakhstan University, Shymkent 160012, Kazakhstan

Ainur Mukhamedkhanova

Department of Economics, Graduate School of Management and Business, M. Auezov South Kazakhstan University, Shymkent 160012, Kazakhstan

Maksat Yelikbay

Faculty of Law, M. Auezov South Kazakhstan University, Shymkent 160012, Kazakhstan

Altynay Turlybekova

Accreditation Department, South Kazakhstan Pedagogical University Named after Uzbekali Zhanibekov,

Shymkent 160012, Kazakhstan

Madina Sergaziyeva

Department of Business and Management, Regional Innovation University, Shymkent 160012, Kazakhstan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i2.2733

Received: 14 September 2025 | Revised: 17 November 2025 | Accepted: 28 November 2025 | Published Online: 1 June 2026

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Abstract

Global climate change creates significant risks for food security in countries with vulnerable agro-ecological systems, including the Republic of Kazakhstan. This study aims to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the impact of key climate factors—average annual temperature and precipitation—on grain crop productivity at the regional level during the period 2015–2024. Using fixed-effects panel regression modeling and scenario forecasting, the research identifies a negative relationship between rising temperatures and agricultural yields, as well as a positive correlation between increased precipitation and productivity. The results highlight the high climate sensitivity of southern and western regions, where the combination of drought, soil degradation, and water scarcity intensifies threats to food system stability. A short-term forecast to 2029 indicates a gradual decline in crop yields under an inertial development scenario, contrasted with a potential increase in productivity if adaptive measures are implemented—modernization of irrigation infrastructure, adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties, digital monitoring tools, and optimization of crop structures. The findings emphasize the necessity of integrating climate risk assessments into Kazakhstan’s national agricultural strategy and developing regionally differentiated adaptation policies. These results provide a scientific basis for strengthening food security management, guiding strategic planning, and mitigating economic losses associated with accelerating climate change.

Keywords: Climate Change; Climate Risks; Food Security; Agriculture; Sustainable Development; Kazakhstan; Sce‑ nario Analysis; Adaptation

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